Scottish Independence - Vision versus pragmatism

If recent surveys are to be believed, the yes campaign for Scottish independence is not doing very well and so political questions are being asked why this is the case. Having met and worked with a fair few Scots over the years, I think I have the answer. For some reason, Scots tend to be very pragmatic. I cannot explain why, maybe it is a cultural trait brought on by the weather!

Actually, I think the SNP and the yes campaign are doing a very poor job of selling their case and as a professional civil servant (with Machiavellian leanings, let's not deny that!) I can recognise some of the tactics the yes campaign is using which is so spectacularly failing. They are too reliant on making the emotional case for independence and they are totally failing to make the pragmatic or hard nosed case that the Scots want to know about. Listen to them when they answer questions, the responses are always about how wonderful and liberating independence would be with Scots choosing their destiny and making their own vision. I think they could just save everyone a lot of waffle and simply say, "vote for independence because we all hate those Conservative/Southern tossers telling us what to do!"

I have never been able to fob off a Scot that I have worked with by giving a vague answer talking about 'vision' or 'choices'. Like I said, they always seem to be very pragmatic and can smell bullshit! The staff members who I count as the best staff I have managed have all been Scottish and I put this down to, in part, their willingness to challenge me and to try and drill down to the facts.

So what 'facts' do the SNP use to support their case for independence as well as their more emotive arguments?

I have paid a fair bit of attention to the debates, both for professional reasons and out of curiosity and I have to confess that as an outsider who is meant to be looking for this sort of detail I cannot even answer that question. Even more of an issue for me is that I have read a bit of SNP sponsored analysis and assessments of what an independent Scotland would mean in a practical sense. I threw all those reports away with disgust, the quality of analysis was so bad. Their is plenty about their 'vision', but absolutely nothing about how they will make that vision a reality.

I should like to use a simple example. When Philip Hammond, then recently made Secretary of State for Defence, was told of Alex Salmond's plan to ask for the Scottish proportion of the armed forces, his response was devastating. "The UK Armed Forces are a highly integrated and very sophisticated fighting force.The idea that you can sort of break off a little bit, like a square on a chocolate bar, and that would be the bit that went north of the border, is frankly laughable." You need to only to have a cursory glance at the UK armed forces to realise that he is right. For a more in-depth analysis of the poor thinking that went into this policy by the SNP, this rather good post from the thinpinstripedline covers it rather well.

But let us move on from those flaws and focus on the parts that matter to the Scots. Reportedly many Scots are anti-nuclear weapons and the SNP are very happy to espouse their 'vision' of Scotland being nuclear weapons free. Of course this really means nuclear submarine free since all the submarines, nuclear armed or otherwise, tend to be supported from the same base. Having set out this 'vision' how do the SNP intend to make it a reality? More importantly, how do they intend to deal with the consequences of this policy? Remember that in politics almost nothing is black and white, there are always consequences. Well believe it or not, the SNP did sponsor a report into this issue. Unfortunately, they seemed to have given it to Greenpeace to do the analysis. It is so bad, I will not even link to it for fear of promoting a travesty of economic analysis! Effectively, the SNP have no plan or even any credible economic figures to even form a plan. Thus the thousands of Scots living on the west coast who directly or indirectly benefit from the millions brought into the local economy by the Clyde naval base would lose a significant source of income. This does not even touch on the likelihood of the British government in a pique of anger at losing the independence vote scrapping naval ship orders and refits conducted at both Glasgow and Rosyth dockyards. What was that about pragmatic Scots and turkeys voting for Christmas..?

This is just defence. Look at SNP policies and (lack of) analysis on various other important issues such as energy generation, economic policies, fishery management, funding the NHS, being a part of Europe... the list goes on. There is a complete lack of anything proving that Scotland would be better off. The Scottish Executive has civil servants, what are they doing? Aren't they drawing up any detailed plans on how to sustain an independent Scotland? Surely they are not going to start doing the work on trying to exploit Scotland's strengths after the date of the referendum with no preparatory work being done beforehand? As a UK civil servant, where do I start if I am told to work with the Scottish civil servants on 'sorting things out'? One of the most frustrating aspects of my job is dealing with people who do not really know what they want. I shudder to think what this would be like on a national scale.

Normally, this lack of detail does not matter in politics and when campaigning on an issue. Good looks, down to earth charm, appealing to emotions and an inspiring oration on how wonderful life will be are the tools of the trade for the competent politician selling their big idea to the electorate. This is the fundamental flaw with democracy, appearance and emotion is everything, substance and hard nosed realism is meaningless. Yet the Scots seem determined to prove this is not the case with them. They may yet teach the other regions in the UK something about democracy during this referendum. Pragmatism and critical analysis have their place in a functioning democracy, lose it at your peril!

Energy strategy? What energy strategy!

When it comes to examining UK energy policies and strategies for the National Grid for the last fifteen years and up to the present day, things do not look rosy. If I were to articulate UK aspirations for its future energy consumption, I would break it down into two clear objectives:

1) Reduce the environmental effects of current energy sources (I do not just mean reduce carbon emissions).

2) Get away from unstable sources of energy such as foreign oil and gas.

Governments of various colours and in various countries seem to broadly agree with these objectives, but the UK government (past and present) is making a pig’s ear of it! Prevarication, self interest, contradictory policies, greed and incompetence all feature in the rich tapestry that is the recent history of UK energy generation. This is immensely frustrating because with clear leadership and sensible planning and management the two objectives named above can be achieved. I do not believe they are mutually exclusive and in fact I also think there are several opportunities that can be exploited. Sadly the incoherent approach to this issue is having a ripple effect across much of Whitehall disrupting other areas of government business, what should be simple has become complex.

So to repeat one of my favourite phrases when faced with a complex problem, “Let’s simply.” What are the options for obtaining more energy for the grid.

Options for construction available now

Nuclear power plants

Coal fired power plants

Gas fired power plants

Oil fired power plants

Wind farms

Solar panels

Dam projects driving turbines

Tidal barriers

Biofuel

Energy from Waste

Possible future construction options

Fusion/thorium power plants

Underwater turbines

Wave power

No doubt there are a few choices I have missed, but the above seem like a nice wide choice to me. Let’s rule out the impractical ones first. That means coal and oil are out as these run counter to the objectives stated above. We can rule out solar for the UK Grid except for micro generation. I definitely think solar should be used for people’s homes, but I find it rather annoying that solar panels are still horribly expensive and no one has yet been clever enough to make them resemble roof tiles thus improving their looks. While solar would benefit individual householders, this is not an answer to powering the Grid. I am also outright rejecting biofuel. It cannot be generated in any kind of sustainable way to fuel the National Grid or as a vehicle fuel. Anyone who says otherwise is deluding themselves or psychotic enough to willingly suggest we condemn millions of people to starvation.

Gas power is a bit of a gamble right now as to make it compliant with the objectives makes the leap of faith that the UK is able to exploit domestic gas reserves, mainly through fracking. I am assuming that methane gas generation from agricultural means is unsustainable for similar reasons to biofuel. I am going to rule gas out at this stage as it currently relies on foreign gas reserves unless proven otherwise. It may well be that fracking will prove to be viable, but you cannot make a multi billion pound decision on a maybe! OK I lie, the government makes those decisions all the time, but I am going to make the small point that if the UK does have enough shale gas to be worthwhile, it might be best to use it for powering vehicles rather than power stations as gas can use the current infrastructure methods with relatively minor adjustments. This is a decision that is best put off until we have the ‘ground truth’.

I have put underwater turbines and wave power as possible future options and I have to confess they hold a great deal of appeal to me. Sadly the investment in this area has been lacking and so I am not aware of anyone who is able to claim these are options available today. I definitely think research money needs to be poured into these areas in a big way. Sadly this money is being hovered up by wind farms. As for fusion/thorium, I attended an excellent lecture on this topic last year by a scientist specialising in this field and so I know we are a long way away from being able to deploy it, thus this option goes into the long term research pile.

Energy from waste (EfW) does have its uses and is a much better way to get rid of rubbish than landfill. I have no reason to doubt government claims that a properly managed EfW plant does not cause adverse health impacts to nearby residents, but I am aware that lots of people have their doubts on this matter. Either way, I can only see a limited future for EfW plants, they can contribute to the national grid, but due to NIMBYism and the logistical impracticalities of trying to funnel huge amounts of rubbish to them daily, I just cannot envisage there being that many of them. Like solar, they can contribute rather than deliver anything hugely substantial.

This effectively leaves the UK with looking at nuclear power or renewable energy as its best options. This is no kind of earth shattering revelation, but it helps to recap why we find ourselves with these options. For me, a complex picture has been simplified. Now it is time to dig a bit deeper into the implementation of these options.

Implementing tidal barriers

The fact that we do not have more of this form of power generation is down to lack of vision and lack of sensible planning and financing. Like EfW and solar, it probably could not meet all our electricity needs without having a disproportionate effect in various unspoilt areas. However, there is definitely scope for at least building a number. One of the most prolific, reliable and untapped resources available to the UK is being completely wasted. It is nothing short of stupid and the government's unwillingness to properly fund this sort of option itself does the UK a great dis-service. Waiting for the private sector to fund such big projects is pointless as history has shown that only governments are really prepared to make this sort of long term investment.

Building wind farms

I see a role for wind farms, just not in the numbers so desperately put forward by government policy. For me, this technology is readily implementable, hence its appeal, but its returns will not justify the huge capital outlay currently being committed into it. The reason being is due to its intermittent power output, their unpopularity with locals and the disruption they cause to important systems such as radars. Where I do see a role for wind farms is when linked to a dam/resevoir project. The power gets generated by the water flowing down from the dam or reservoir and a small number of wind farms can be used to power the pumps that push the water back up again. Again, wind farm or wind farms linked to a dam is an option that contributes to the needs of the Grid, but cannot in themselves satisfy the requirements.

Implementing the nuclear option

Well known technology with a pretty good safety record in the UK, there is a lot to be said for nuclear and many people already have. The biggest issue, as it has always been, is what to do with the waste. Sadly attempts by successive governments to privatise or delegate the management of this problem has been an unmitigated mess. This does not help allay a negative perception of nuclear power held by the population at large. In short, the nuclear industry and successive governments have buggered it up, covered up their poor decisions and so few people trust the nuclear option. The government now needs to recover from the poor decisions made in the past and rebuild some kind of new nuclear power capability. This is not going well and with now only one French company able to dictate terms the situation is not going to get better. This obsession with trusting the market to make big investments without significant subsidy is a complete fallacy. It is true of nuclear as of any of the other power generation options available.

Conclusion

Well I do not want to run around screaming that we are doomed and I say that as I suspect that when things get desperate someone will, by necessity, show some leadership and make things happen. Just expect the whole process to be very painful and very expensive.

However, if the UK government suddenly became rational and started to make decisions today to try and puruse the objectives stated above then the options really are quite simple as there is effectively little choice. For starters, a minimum nuclear option needs to be pursued sufficient to ensure that it covers the minimum power requirement for the UK in 10-15 years time. As a stop gap, some gas power plants will probably need to be built or upgraded to keep the lights on, but if shale gas is proven as viable then expect this to become a major solution even though the gas should go to transport or export. Everything else will have to go into renewable power generation. There will not be one solution that can be used, wind power alone will not do it, nor will the others as it effectively has to be a bit of everything.

Which brings me neatly onto the opportunities. If only the UK was significantly investing in nearly all the renewable/sustainable options outlined above, not just wind power (mainly wind, tidal, wave, under water and nuclear), I think it would set the UK up for being able to export that expertise and technology. There is no doubt that there will be a huge demand worldwide for sustainable energy generation and various countries will be interested in various solutions. There is a gap in the market for these sort of technologies and the country that corners this market will make a fortune. Most of those at the top of the coalition get this, but they seem incapable of implementing it, crippled by vested interests and hostile backbench MPs. This lack of leadership and foresight will cost the UK a unique opportunity and while it is not impossible to come back from this, there can be no doubt that other countries will soon overtake the UK and try to claim the wealthy prize that lies at being the successful leader in this field. We had our chance and we are blowing it. The success of nations in the 20th century revolved around securing access to energy and resources and using it for their development, I doubt very much the next century will be much different in that regards.

Disclaimer: I am not a passionate advocate of the green movement who, with some notable exceptions, do not think things through very well or argue their case with anything more than idealism. As a civil servant I have just looked at the opportunities that are available to the UK and I can see the dangers of not gaining self-sufficient and sustainable power generation. The UK in itself cannot make more than a smudge in reducing world carbon emissions nor can it really persuade other developing countries to cut back on their own development. But the UK could just focus on making the technologies work at which point the economic case would far outweigh the environmental case as far as other countries are concerned and thus the objectives of the green movement would be met by simple self promoting economics.