Realpolitik

This story on the BBC about the Russians selling arms to Syria made me smile: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18642032

The Russians are canny political operators and yet their position on Syria is drawing widespread condemnation. They learnt a brutal form of politics during Soviet times and although their democracy may appear messy and corrupt at times (we can't claim any moral high ground here) they have learnt painful lessons about democratic politics, can afford good PR people and they know the art of political manipulation. I would speculate that the Russian government is actually playing a double game when it comes to Syria's arms. Syria is no doubt a milestone around their neck that they would be happy to do without, yet they must protect their interests. Realpolitik is much more of a driving force than human rights concerns and they stand to lose a lot more than most countries if Assad's government falls.

Their argument that they do not want terrorists taking control of Syria is a credible one. Their point about the Western nations practising double standards by arming the rebels in Syria and Libya is a hard hitting point. Yet there is also an unspoken, yet very strong economic case for their position, this is their arms export industry. Decimated following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has spent many years rebuilding it and competing on a very competitive international stage. It is a significant revenue earner as well a means of gaining political influence abroad. So why is it important to them to continue to supply Syria despite the international political issues that this creates?

I would argue that we should look further internationally for the answer, specifically Asia, Africa and Latin America. The arms export industry for  Russia and China is very strong in those defence markets that Western democracies are reluctant to get involved with. Where there is a civil war or a corrupt regime, Russian or Chinese arms are usually to be found. Their big selling point is that they do not ask questions about how their arms are used and while their arms are not as cutting edge as Western made arms, they are rugged, cheaper and work well. This is a huge market with not only a large amount of money involved, but also the ability to influence those countries sitting on untapped mineral wealth such as oil or rare metals. China is aggressively expanding its influence and so Russian defence companies must maintain their reputation as reliable suppliers to compete.

So what is Russia to do with those outstanding Syrian defence contracts? They don't want to reduce their international standing in the world, but they don't want to lose ground in their defence export market either. The answer could be to ship the goods as required, but then to find a way of stopping them from arriving. Enter stage left some cargo ships which get stopped and turned back in British waters because their insurance is refused. How did the insurance company find out about the arms on those ships? Were they informed by an intelligence agency and if so which one, Russian or Western? And why did the Russians ship these controversial goods through the North Sea rather than through the Black Sea where they were less likely to have been stopped? I can only speculate as I have no intimate knowledge of what happened, but it would not surprise me if the Russians deliberately sabotaged the shipping. They will still try and get the goods to Syria, but quite likely by then it will be too late for the arms to make any difference. In the meantime, the Russians maintain their reputation for sticking to their contracts. Who knows, maybe they will get lucky and manage to sell the same goods twice?

How very Machiavellian! How very Russian too with a nice bit of maskirovka.