To paraphrase Machiavelli, "For the Prince/Tyrant to stay in power, he must reward those who support him and weaken those who oppose him." In modern democratic language this would be "Maintain your core vote".
When historians look back at governments, they always focus upon what those governments achieved, what lasting legacy they left as a result of their time in power. Some governments are more memorable than others. I cannot help thinking that unless something dramatic changes in the next two years, the current government is not likely to leave much of a legacy beyond being a memorable coalition that muddled along during a severe economic depression.
The fundamental issue is that I cannot look at any of the government policies and think that they will help much. The language has been very much of austerity and surely successfully fixing or breaking the economy would leave a memorable legacy? In reality, I can only feel that the current period of government will be remembered as one of retrenchment.
By this I mean that just about every policy implemented by this government feels like it is aimed at removing something from most people. Welfare benefits, retirement age, pensions, wages, employee rights, right to privacy and so on. All the policies seeking to address these fundamental issues seem to take something away from the population at large. By unpleasant coincidence, many of these retrenchments benefit large corporations who have lobbied government or made political donations. While this may benefit a cosy elite, it does nothing to shore up the core vote or make the population want to re-elect a government that it thinks has taken so much away that was previously accepted as 'a right'. The equal marriage law is an exception and there are already hints that this surprising drive for this law by the Conservative is a desperate attempt to counter this perception, even at the cost of core party support.
No wonder the 'swivel eyed loons' are so strident, they themselves must feel the general frustration and while they may have some ideological affinity with the policies designed to pare back the state, they can also all too easily see that the few are making uncomfortable decisions not to the benefit of the many. Those politicians making the decisions benefit in the short to medium term, but those that come after them will suffer the consequences as seen by the rapid increase in voter disenfranchisement.
The coalition government is breaking one of Machiavelli's key rules, shore up your support and undermine your opponents. Labour know how to obey this rule and recent history shows that they will do this even at the cost of good government policies. Helping lobbyists and big businesses will not get the coalition votes, but then they will be in the money anyway so why should they care? Unlike the Princes and tyrants of Machiavelli's time, being toppled from power in a democratic society is unlikely to be fatal. It is a bit like those chief executive contracts, you get a golden handout from being kicked out rather than suffering some form of punishment. What a shame Ministers cannot be motivated by long term share options!
Showing posts with label Machiavelli. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Machiavelli. Show all posts
Friday, 24 May 2013
Saturday, 30 June 2012
Realpolitik
This story on the BBC about the Russians selling arms to Syria made me smile: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18642032
The Russians are canny political operators and yet their position on Syria is drawing widespread condemnation. They learnt a brutal form of politics during Soviet times and although their democracy may appear messy and corrupt at times (we can't claim any moral high ground here) they have learnt painful lessons about democratic politics, can afford good PR people and they know the art of political manipulation. I would speculate that the Russian government is actually playing a double game when it comes to Syria's arms. Syria is no doubt a milestone around their neck that they would be happy to do without, yet they must protect their interests. Realpolitik is much more of a driving force than human rights concerns and they stand to lose a lot more than most countries if Assad's government falls.
Their argument that they do not want terrorists taking control of Syria is a credible one. Their point about the Western nations practising double standards by arming the rebels in Syria and Libya is a hard hitting point. Yet there is also an unspoken, yet very strong economic case for their position, this is their arms export industry. Decimated following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has spent many years rebuilding it and competing on a very competitive international stage. It is a significant revenue earner as well a means of gaining political influence abroad. So why is it important to them to continue to supply Syria despite the international political issues that this creates?
I would argue that we should look further internationally for the answer, specifically Asia, Africa and Latin America. The arms export industry for Russia and China is very strong in those defence markets that Western democracies are reluctant to get involved with. Where there is a civil war or a corrupt regime, Russian or Chinese arms are usually to be found. Their big selling point is that they do not ask questions about how their arms are used and while their arms are not as cutting edge as Western made arms, they are rugged, cheaper and work well. This is a huge market with not only a large amount of money involved, but also the ability to influence those countries sitting on untapped mineral wealth such as oil or rare metals. China is aggressively expanding its influence and so Russian defence companies must maintain their reputation as reliable suppliers to compete.
So what is Russia to do with those outstanding Syrian defence contracts? They don't want to reduce their international standing in the world, but they don't want to lose ground in their defence export market either. The answer could be to ship the goods as required, but then to find a way of stopping them from arriving. Enter stage left some cargo ships which get stopped and turned back in British waters because their insurance is refused. How did the insurance company find out about the arms on those ships? Were they informed by an intelligence agency and if so which one, Russian or Western? And why did the Russians ship these controversial goods through the North Sea rather than through the Black Sea where they were less likely to have been stopped? I can only speculate as I have no intimate knowledge of what happened, but it would not surprise me if the Russians deliberately sabotaged the shipping. They will still try and get the goods to Syria, but quite likely by then it will be too late for the arms to make any difference. In the meantime, the Russians maintain their reputation for sticking to their contracts. Who knows, maybe they will get lucky and manage to sell the same goods twice?
How very Machiavellian! How very Russian too with a nice bit of maskirovka.
The Russians are canny political operators and yet their position on Syria is drawing widespread condemnation. They learnt a brutal form of politics during Soviet times and although their democracy may appear messy and corrupt at times (we can't claim any moral high ground here) they have learnt painful lessons about democratic politics, can afford good PR people and they know the art of political manipulation. I would speculate that the Russian government is actually playing a double game when it comes to Syria's arms. Syria is no doubt a milestone around their neck that they would be happy to do without, yet they must protect their interests. Realpolitik is much more of a driving force than human rights concerns and they stand to lose a lot more than most countries if Assad's government falls.
Their argument that they do not want terrorists taking control of Syria is a credible one. Their point about the Western nations practising double standards by arming the rebels in Syria and Libya is a hard hitting point. Yet there is also an unspoken, yet very strong economic case for their position, this is their arms export industry. Decimated following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has spent many years rebuilding it and competing on a very competitive international stage. It is a significant revenue earner as well a means of gaining political influence abroad. So why is it important to them to continue to supply Syria despite the international political issues that this creates?
I would argue that we should look further internationally for the answer, specifically Asia, Africa and Latin America. The arms export industry for Russia and China is very strong in those defence markets that Western democracies are reluctant to get involved with. Where there is a civil war or a corrupt regime, Russian or Chinese arms are usually to be found. Their big selling point is that they do not ask questions about how their arms are used and while their arms are not as cutting edge as Western made arms, they are rugged, cheaper and work well. This is a huge market with not only a large amount of money involved, but also the ability to influence those countries sitting on untapped mineral wealth such as oil or rare metals. China is aggressively expanding its influence and so Russian defence companies must maintain their reputation as reliable suppliers to compete.
So what is Russia to do with those outstanding Syrian defence contracts? They don't want to reduce their international standing in the world, but they don't want to lose ground in their defence export market either. The answer could be to ship the goods as required, but then to find a way of stopping them from arriving. Enter stage left some cargo ships which get stopped and turned back in British waters because their insurance is refused. How did the insurance company find out about the arms on those ships? Were they informed by an intelligence agency and if so which one, Russian or Western? And why did the Russians ship these controversial goods through the North Sea rather than through the Black Sea where they were less likely to have been stopped? I can only speculate as I have no intimate knowledge of what happened, but it would not surprise me if the Russians deliberately sabotaged the shipping. They will still try and get the goods to Syria, but quite likely by then it will be too late for the arms to make any difference. In the meantime, the Russians maintain their reputation for sticking to their contracts. Who knows, maybe they will get lucky and manage to sell the same goods twice?
How very Machiavellian! How very Russian too with a nice bit of maskirovka.
Monday, 21 May 2012
Introduction
Most people have heard
of Niccolo Machiavelli, but do they know what a Mandarin is? For those of you
who do not know it is what the British call their senior civil servants. A
non-elected group of people, traditionally white, middle aged male and middle
class and to be found at the heart of government and in charge of their respective government departments. That stereotype is no longer as true as it was, but unfortunately the
Mandarins are not as diverse as could be wished. I would know as I am one of
them. So was Machiavelli as he was a senior advisor to the rulers of some of
the Italian states during the 15th Century.
Machiavelli stands out
from what is traditionally a very anonymous group of people, not just because of
some of his controversial writings, but because he was a man who sought to
provide a critical analysis of the workings of rulers and governments at the
time. I have chosen the alias The Machiavellian Mandarin because like him I
want to set out a critique of how government is conducted in Britain .
Fortunately, unlike Machiavelli, I do not face the risk of being tortured or
executed for my criticisms. However, there are some ground rules for this blog.
Ground Rules
I wish to remain
anonymous
I do work for the
central civil service, but I am not going to reveal which department I work for
I will not be exposing
any secrets or blowing the whistle on anything, as a member of the civil
service I gave up that right. Everything I talk about in this blog will be
common knowledge or on issues exposed in the UK press
All the opinions and
writings contained in this blog are my own and not any official government
opinion
All constructive
comments, criticisms and feedback are welcome
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